Based on the trends around 1100 hours (IST), November 6th, 2024.
With the US Presidential Election results sweeping the news across the globe, all eyes are on the battleground. It becomes pertinent for us to look at the data and break things down to understand the ongoing trends easily.
Note: North Carolina and Georgia have already been called while it is a coin flip in the Rust Belt (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan). Arizona and Nevada will take days to count.
Georgia (GA) and North Carolina (NC)
By the time the article is published, Georgia and North Carolina will have been called for Trump. Both were reliably red states for decades before the rapid racial diversification led to them becoming competitive. It was Biden who won Georgia by 0.2 per cent in 2020, while he lost North Carolina by just over a point.
Fast forward to 2024 and Trump has won them both owing to several factors:
Both NC & GA are Southern states with large conservative white populations that overwhelmingly vote Republican. Being a part of the so-called “Bible Belt”, the issue of abortion does not rally voters there quite the same way it does elsewhere.
The results show that Harris has underperformed Biden in the rural black belt in both states. She might have underperformed just by a point or two but in states decided by such narrow margins, even losses like these are fatal to her chances.
Trump has moved rural Georgia even further to the right. Imagine being able to get more votes from counties that already vote 80-20 for you. Despite the fact that Harris basically matched (or slightly improved) Biden in the Atlanta metro area, Trump was able to drive up such massive numbers in rural white Georgia that it became impossible for Kamala to win.
With Georgia and North Carolina having gone to Trump, it all boils down to the next subdivision of states on our list — the crucial Rust Belt. Harris’ Blue Wall. The WIMPA (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) states.
The Blue Wall
The only plausible path forward for Kamala is to hold the Democratic Blue Wall of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The Blue Wall refers to these three states that voted Democratic from 1992 to 2012, but became ultra-competitive due to Trump's unique appeal among non-college-educated whites - a group that makes up over 33 per cent of the electorate in these states.
All three states are a must-win for Harris at this point, yet she is trailing Trump in all three of them. These states take much longer to count compared to GA and NC and will likely be called by the afternoon or evening (or even night) of November 6th, as per IST. This is because mail-in absentee ballots from urban centres arrive late in these states.
The rural turnout is massive this year in these states which favours Trump; the urban and suburban centres also had large turnouts favouring Harris. But even though the elections seem to be a tossup, it is far from the truth. That is because Harris is underperforming Biden in these urban counties (Dane County and Milwaukee County in Wisconsin, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia in Pennsylvania, and Wayne in Michigan) by 2-6 per cent points. Losses of even 1 per cent in urban centres are catastrophic for Harris in these states considering the record turnout in these blood-red rural areas that favour Trump.
One key aspect to note is that this is the first election where the Republican leaders openly promoted early voting (something that Democrats have favoured for a long time). This resulted in a record-high turnout from Republicans in the early vote which is something that caught the Democrats off guard. Because of this push, a lot of politically disengaged Republicans (called low-propensity voters) came to vote which massively cut into Democratic margins in mail-in votes. It must be noted that Democrats build up massive margins in mail-in or early voting while Republicans catch up with in-person election-day votes. The Democratic mail-in firewall in Pennsylvania was 1.1 million votes heading into election day in 2020. This year it is 400k. This coupled with an expected election-day Republican surge might create serious problems for Harris. As of the time of writing this article, Trump leads by 2.7 per cent in Pennsylvania with 89 per cent of the votes. That is a tough margin for Harris to cover.
Her only hope now is the suburban women who have voted Democratic in massive numbers in recent elections owing to their pro-abortion stance. The greater the margin she can run up among this group, the better it is for her because exit polling has shown her seriously struggling with white men. This election will be a test of abortion vs economy In The Rust Belt.
Simply for Harris, it is the Blue Wall or Bust.
If she loses Pennsylvania, it is over.
Update: Pennsylvania will be called before this article is published.
Arizona and Nevada
Arizona and Nevada take painfully long to count their votes so we might not know the winner in Arizona till 7th Nov and in Nevada till 8th or 9th Nov.
Arizona was a solidly red state for decades before becoming competitive in the 21st century owing to the growth and diversification of its largest centre Maricopa County which houses the capital city of Phoenix. Heading into election day, it is normally Democrats that have a firewall of surplus mail-in votes and the question is usually if the Republicans can overcome that on election day. This time, however, Republicans have built a lead of 200k votes heading into election day. This is a massive Red Wall and makes it improbable for the Democrats to overcome on an election day.
Usually in Arizona, a lot of the moderate Republicans hated Trump. It looks like they are voting Trump this time. Arizona has such a deep Republican base that they can churn out voters while the Democratic base will get exhausted. On top of this, Arizona is a border state where immigration is a major issue (an issue where Trump polls well).
Nevada is a small swing state with just six electoral votes which is why it does not get much attention. It is a 50-50 race at this point. The fundamentals favour Harris (Nevada has gone Blue in the last four presidential elections), but the state has slowly shifted to the right which was evident by the Republicans flipping the Governor’s office in 2022. The early vote in Nevada painted a bleak picture for Democrats though the Harris campaign is still optimistic of its chances there owing to its strength among union voters. Nevertheless, Nevada matters quite less in the grand scheme of things and is unlikely to change the election outcome.
With Trump being the favourite to become just the second President of the United States to be elected to non-consecutive terms, and Republicans having taken back control of the Senate, it all comes down to the House Of Representatives. Trump needs to win the House to get anything properly done in office and currently, the Democrats are narrow favourites to take the House.
That's American Politics For All!
Update: Trump has a real shot at winning Minnesota. a state that has not gone red since 1972 (the longest streak in the nation).
Featured image credit: Associated Press
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